You’re Not as Stupid as You Think (2 Min Read) | Vol. 196

March 27, 2026

“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” — Bertrand Russell

You’re Not as Stupid as You Think

In 1995, McArthur Wheeler and Clifton Earl Johnson robbed two banks at gunpoint in Pittsburgh. Neither wore a mask. Neither avoided the security cameras. Johnson was arrested the same week. Wheeler, a few months later. Both were identified from surveillance footage.

When Wheeler was shown the photo that led to his arrest, he exclaimed, “But I wore the lemon juice. I wore the lemon juice.”

Johnson had convinced Wheeler that if they smeared lemon juice on their faces, they would be invisible to cameras. His logic? Lemon juice is invisible ink. Therefore, lemon juice makes you invisible. 

When Cornell psychology professor David Dunning read about the botched heist, he wondered if the crooks were too stupid to know they were stupid. He and his grad student, Justin Kruger, set out to find the answer. The Dunning-Kruger Effect was born. 

Their research shows that the less someone knows, the more confident they tend to be. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. The phenomenon is most on display when teenagers “school” their parents on how the world works. Complete with eye roll.

Here’s the flip side. The more you know, the less confident you tend to be. Shakespeare got it right when he wrote, “The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool.” You can be too stupid to know it. And too smart to know it.

That last part is the important part. I’ve written before about impostor syndrome. It’s an absolute plague among high performers. They’ll never fall for a “lemon juice trap.” But they will dissect and dwell on their gaps.  Expertise comes with high performance and excruciating clarity on your shortcomings. 

 Where you focus matters. 

Perfection is overrated. Stop doubting yourself and keep doing the work. 

One question to ponder in your thinking time: What would I do differently if I trusted my experience as much as I should? 

Make an Impact!
Jay Papasan
Author | CEO | Coach | Speaker