Two Laws Every Leader Should Know About Time (4 Min Read) | Vol. 192

February 27, 2026

“It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law.” – Douglas Hofstadter

Two Laws Every Leader Should Know About Time

Read that quote again. It’s a riddle wrapped in a truth bomb. Computer scientist Douglas Hofstadter named this recursive little gem after himself, and it’s been annoying project managers ever since.

Here’s the idea. You think a task will take two hours. Then you remember you always underestimate, so you give yourself three. It takes four. Hofstadter’s Law says even your correction will be wrong. It’s the universe’s way of keeping us humble.

The underlying science has a name, too. Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky called it the Planning Fallacy — our systematic tendency to underestimate the time, cost, and complexity of future tasks. 

Research suggests we’re not a little off. We’re roughly 50% off. A task you think will take an hour? Plan for ninety minutes. A project you project will take three months? Expect closer to five. This isn’t a character flaw. It’s how our brains are wired. When we plan, we mentally run the highlight reel — everything goes right, nobody drops the ball, everything works on the first try. We skip the blooper reel entirely.

After 13-plus years of intentional time blocking, I’ve learned to stop fighting the research and start using it. The planning fallacy isn’t just a problem to be aware of. It’s a tool — once you pair it with another law.

The Two-Law Approach to Time Blocking

In 1955, historian Cyril Northcote Parkinson observed that “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.” Give yourself all day to clean out your inbox and you’ll take all day. Give yourself 30 minutes and you’ll be amazed at how much you get done. That’s Parkinson’s Law.

Here’s what most people miss. Parkinson’s Law and the Planning Fallacy aren’t contradictions. They’re complementary tools — you just have to know when to use each one.

For your 80% work, use Parkinson’s Law. These are the tasks that must get done but aren’t your highest-value work — email, admin, routine meetings, data entry. Compress the time. Set a timer for 30 minutes and see how many emails you can triage. Make it a game. When the timer goes off, stop. Your inbox will never hit zero for long anyway, so quit chasing that myth. The time constraint forces you to prioritize. You’ll handle the important stuff and the rest will wait or solve itself.

For your ONE Thing, use the planning fallacy — in reverse. This is your most important work. The work that moves the needle. Don’t compress it. Expand it. Whatever time you think you’ll need, add 50%. If you think your ONE Thing will take two hours, block three.

Why? Because this is the work you actually need to finish. And the worst thing that happens isn’t spending a little extra time on it. The worst thing is running out of time halfway through and having to go find another open block on your calendar to complete it. Good luck with that. Our schedules are already packed. You’ll lose all your momentum, and on busy teams, you might not find another opening for days. What should have taken one focused session now takes two or three fragmented ones. If it gets done at all.

And if you finish early? Congratulations. Move on. You just gave yourself the gift of found time.

The Cheat Sheet

• 80% work → Small time blocks. Leverage Parkinson’s Law. Compress and conquer.
• ONE Thing → Big time blocks + 50%. Leverage the planning fallacy. Protect and complete.

One is about efficiency. The other is about effectiveness. Both require the discipline to time block. Neither works if your calendar is an open invitation.

One question to ponder in your thinking time: Am I giving my most important work enough time to get done or am I setting myself up to start over? 

Make an Impact!
Jay Papasan
Co-author of The ONE Thing, The Millionaire Real Estate Agent & author of The Rookie Real Estate Agent

P.S. These two laws only work if they’re built into how you plan your week. We just opened the doors to our self-paced program, The ONE Thing Operating System. It’s a practical framework for containing the 80% and protecting the ONE Thing. It’s open now, with $100 off through March 3rd. To learn more, go to the1thing.com/os